2022年8月新闻热点(Recent hotspots August 2022)
作者:Publius (这一笔名曾为美国国父汉弥尔顿在撰写 “联邦党人文集” 时使用)
目录:
1.美国通胀有所缓解
2.美联储考虑进行加息
3.日本爆发新一轮疫情
4.拜登政府宣布新一轮对乌克兰军事援助
5.贝壳研究院发布住房空置率报告,引发巨大争论
6.川普住所受到美国联邦调查局调查
7.美国众议院周五通过了一项全面的税收、健康和气候法案
1.美国通胀有所缓解 据美国汽车协会(AAA)数据,全美平均油价自3月以来首次跌破4美元心理关口,降至3.99美元/加仑,6月14号曾达到创纪录的5.016美元/加仑。 由于能源成本下降,继7月消费者价格指数CPI增速放缓后、7月生产者价格指数意外下跌,显示潜在生产者通胀似乎呈下降趋势,但有美联储官员表态称,现在宣称打压通胀胜利还为时过早。 美国劳工部11号公布的数据显示,7月生产者价格指数环比下降0.5%,这是自2020年4月以来的首次下降,预期为上涨0.2%;同比上涨了9.8%,低于预期的10.4%。而6月环比上涨了1%,同比上涨了11.3%。 商品价格继6月上涨2.3%后下跌1.8%。汽油价格下跌16.7%,占生产者价格指数跌幅的80%。柴油、液化天然气和住宅天然气价格也大幅下跌。然而,食品价格继6月下跌0.2%后上涨了1%,服务成本在6月上涨0.3%后小幅上涨0.1%。
*综合自美国劳工部,凤凰王又又微博信息等
1. U.S. inflation has eased According to the American Automobile Association (AAA), the national average gas price fell below the psychological $4 mark for the first time since March to $3.99/gallon, after reaching a record $5.016/gallon on June 14. As a result of falling energy costs, following a slowdown in the consumer price index (CPI)growth in July, the producer price index(PPI) unexpectedly fell in July, indicating that potential producer inflation appears to be on a downward trend, but a Fed official stated that it is still too early to claim victory in suppressing inflation. Data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on the 11th showed that the producer price index fell 0.5% in July from a year earlier, the first decline since April 2020, compared with expectations for a 0.2% gain; it rose 9.8% year over year, below expectations for a 10.4% gain. This compares with a 1% increase in June from a month earlier and an 11.3% increase from a year earlier. Commodity prices fell 1.8% following a 2.3% increase in June. Gasoline prices fell 16.7%, accounting for 80% of the decline in the Producer Price Index. Diesel, LNG, and residential natural gas prices also fell sharply. However, food prices rose 1 percent following a 0.2 percent decline in June, and the cost of services rose a modest 0.1 percent following a 0.3 percent increase in June. *Integrated from the U.S. Department of Labor, Phoenix Wang’s Weibo information, etc.
2.美联储考虑进行加息 美联储正在考虑是否在9月20号至21号的下一次政策会议上,加息50或75个基点,以继续打压通胀回到其2%目标。美国劳工部10号报告称,7月消费者价格指数环比增长为0,同比增长8.5%,这也主要得益于汽油价格在下跌,但潜在的价格压力仍然很高。 牛津经济研究院美国经济学家表示,通胀指标可能见顶对消费者、企业和美联储来说是一个可喜的迹象,但经济中历史性的价格动态高涨可能会持续到今年年底。明尼阿波利斯联储银行行长卡什卡里在通胀数据出炉后表示,预计年底基准利率将提高至3.9%,2023年底将提高至4.4%。是迄今美联储官员中最鹰派的表态,旧金山联储银行行长戴利也表示,现在宣称成功打压通胀还为时过早。
*综合自美国劳工部,凤凰王又又微博信息等;
2. The Federal Reserve is considering a rate hike The Federal Reserve is considering whether to raise interest rates by 50 or 75 basis points at its next policy meeting on Sept. 20-21 to continue to depress inflation back to its 2% target. The U.S. Department of Labor reported on the 10th that the Consumer Price Index rose 0 in July from a year earlier and 8.5% from a year earlier, also largely thanks to gasoline prices being on the decline, but underlying price pressures remain high. Oxford Economics U.S. economists said the inflation indicator may have peaked is a welcome sign for consumers, businesses, and the Federal Reserve, but the historically high price dynamics in the economy could continue through the end of the year. Minneapolis Fed Bank President Kashkari said after the inflation data came out that the benchmark interest rate is expected to increase to 3.9 percent by the end of the year and 4.4 percent by the end of 2023. It is the most hawkish statement among Fed officials so far, and San Francisco Fed Bank President Daley also said that it is too early to claim success in suppressing inflation. *Integrated from the U.S. Department of Labor, Phoenix Wang’s microblogging information, etc.;
3.日本爆发新一轮疫情 据世界卫生组织(WHO)的冠病感染症统计显示,日本在8月1日至7日的一周内新增冠病感染人数高达149万6968人,连续三周为世界最多。 与紧随其后的美国75万人和韩国71万人相比,日本新增人数约为两倍之多。同一周的全球感染人数为698万人,日本占21%。 共同社报道,相较上周,包括日本的WHO西太平洋区域办事处辖区内的新增感染人数增加了29%。在其他地区相继减少的情况下,这一地区是唯一增加的地区,成为全球感染人数增加3%的主要原因。 由于陆续有国家取消疫情相关的行动限制,在出入境或使用餐厅时无需提供阴性证明的情况增加,实际检测数正在减少。因此, WHO警惕实际感染人数可能比确诊人数更多,并担忧有可能陷入无法迅速发现新变异毒株的状况。 另一方面,同一周死亡人数最多的是美国,共2764人病逝。其后为巴西1445人、意大利1059人、日本1002人。全球死亡人数较上周减少9%,为1万4563人。 日本星期三(8月10日)单日新增25万403起确诊病例,是自疫情暴发以来单日最高纪录。
*综合自《联合早报》
3. A new outbreak of pandemic in Japan According to the World Health Organization (WHO) coronary disease infection statistics, the number of new coronary disease infections of covid-19 in Japan during the week of August 1 to 7 was as high as 1,496,968, the most in the world for three consecutive weeks. The number of new infections of covid-19 in Japan was about twice as many as the 750,000 in the United States and 710,000 in South Korea, which followed closely behind. In the same week, Japan accounted for 21% of the 6.98 million infections worldwide. Kyodo News reported that the number of new infections in the WHO Western Pacific Regional Office area, which includes Japan, increased by 29% compared to last week. This region was the only region to see an increase, with other regions declining one after another, and was the main reason for the 3% increase in the number of infections worldwide. The actual number of tests is decreasing due to the increasing number of countries that are lifting outbreak-related movement restrictions and not requiring negative certificates when entering or leaving the country or using restaurants. As a result, the WHO is wary that the number of actual infections may be higher than the number of confirmed cases and is concerned about the risk of falling into a situation where new mutant strains cannot be detected quickly. On the other hand, the highest number of deaths in the same week was in the United States, where 2,764 people died of the disease. This was followed by Brazil with 1,445, Italy with 1,059, and Japan with 1,002. The global death toll was down 9% from last week to 14,563. Japan added 250,403 confirmed cases in a single day on Wednesday (Aug. 10), the highest single-day record since the pandemic of covid-19 began. *Integrated from the Union-Tribune
4.拜登政府宣布新一轮对乌克兰军事援助 拜登政府宣布再向乌克兰提供新一波10亿美元的军事援助,这是自俄罗斯2月下旬开始在乌克兰军事行动以来,美国最大的一次援助武器计划。8月8日,国防部 (DoD) 宣布第十八次总统授权价值高达10亿美元的额外安全援助的设备,以满足乌克兰的关键安全和国防需求。最新的安全援助不包含额外的高机动火箭炮(HIMARS)发射系统,但它包括美国已向乌克兰发送的系统的额外弹药。 最新的10亿美元安全包包括: 高机动火箭炮系统(HIMARS)的附加弹药, 75000发155毫米火炮弹药 ,20套120毫米迫击炮系统和20000发120毫米迫击炮弹药, 国家先进地对空导弹系统(NASAMS)的弹药, 1000个标枪和数百个AT4反装甲系统, 50辆装甲医疗车 克莱莫杀伤人员弹药, C-4 炸药、爆破弹药和爆破设备 医疗用品,包括急救箱、绷带、监视器和其他设备 。
4.The Biden administration announced another $1 billion in new military aid for Ukraine — the largest weapons package yet since Russia’s full-scale invasion began in late February. On August 8, the Department of Defense (DoD) announced the eighteenth Presidential Drawdown of equipment valued at up to $1 billion in additional security assistance to meet Ukraine’s critical security and defense needs. The latest security assistance package doesn’t contain additional HIMARS launch systems but it includes additional munitions for systems the U.S. has already sent to Ukraine. The latest $1 billion security package includes: Additional ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) 75,000 rounds of 155mm artillery ammunition 20 120mm mortar systems and 20,000 rounds of 120mm mortar ammunition Munitions for National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems (NASAMS) 1,000 Javelin and hundreds of AT4 anti-armor systems 50 armored medical treatment vehicles Claymore anti-personnel munitions C-4 explosives, demolition munitions, and demolition equipment Medical supplies, including first aid kits, bandages, monitors, and other equipment
5.贝壳研究院发布住房空置率报告,引发巨大争论。 2022年8月5日,贝壳研究院发布的《2022年中国主要城市住房空置率调查报告》显示,住房空置率随城市能级依次递增,一线城市平均7%,二线平均12%,三线16%。其中仅有9个城市空置率处于合理区间之内,大部分城市处于10%-15%之间,6个城市高于15%。具体到调研城市,南昌、廊坊、佛山住房空置率排前三位,均在15%以上,而深圳、北京、上海空置率最低,均在7%以下。 贝壳研究院此次发布的报告,采用的是抽样调研方法,充分发挥遍布全国的门店和经纪人优势,进入3万个小区直接调研: (城市住房空置率:将样本小区的空置户数、小区总户数分别加总,空置户数/总户数即为城市住房空置率。) 贝壳给出的空置率合理区间是5%-10%,如果超过10%就意味着住房供给过剩,存在库存积压风险。 如果按照这一标准,28个城市中只有9个城市在合理区间,17个城市的空置风险都比较高,甚至有6个城市高于15%。 其中,4个一线城市里,北上深空置率都在7%以下,广州9%却成为最高的。 二线城市中,厦门、天津、大连、苏州、济南也都在合理区间。 11个城市的空置率在10-15%区间: 青岛、南京、宁波、长沙、成都、杭州、东莞、沈阳、昆明、郑州、西安、合肥、无锡 6个城市的空置率超过了15%: 武汉、重庆、南昌、南通、佛山、廊坊 最高的南昌,空置率甚至达到了20%。廊坊的空置率也达到了19%。 该报告发布后引发巨大的讨论与争议,贝壳研究院8月12日表示,该文件应为内部研究材料,发至网上引发社会各界议论,为此深表歉意。不过,舆论普遍认为该报告具有较高的可信度。报告说明,中国大城市的房地产供应已经供大于求,房价存在下跌风险。而房价的下跌有可能引发系统性金融危机,该报告可谓敲响了警钟。
5. Shell Research Institute released a report on housing vacancy rates, which sparked a huge controversy. On August 5, 2022, Shell Research Institute released the 2022 Housing Vacancy Rate Survey Report for Major Cities in China, which shows that housing vacancy rates increase sequentially with city energy levels, with an average of 7% in Tier 1 cities, 12% in Tier 2, and 16% in Tier 3. Only nine of these cities have vacancy rates within a reasonable range, with most cities between 10% and 15% and six cities above 15%. Specifically, the cities like Nanchang, Langfang, and Foshan ranked in the top three in terms of the housing vacancy rate, all above 15%, while Shenzhen, Beijing, and Shanghai had the lowest vacancy rates, all below 7%. The report released by Shell Research Institute adopts a sampling research method, giving full play to the advantages of stores and brokers across the country, and entering 30,000 neighborhoods for direct research. (Urban housing vacancy rate: the number of vacant households in the sample neighborhoods and the total number of households in the neighborhoods are summed up separately, and the number of vacant households/total households is the urban housing vacancy rate.) The reasonable range of vacancy rate given by Shell is 5%-10%, if it exceeds 10% it means there is an oversupply of housing and the risk of inventory backlog. If we follow this standard, only 9 out of 28 cities are in the reasonable range, 17 cities are at high risk of vacancy and even 6 cities are above 15%. Among the 4 first-tier cities, the vacancy rate in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen are below 7%, while Guangzhou is the highest at 9%. Among the second-tier cities, Xiamen, Tianjin, Dalian, Suzhou, and Jinan are also within a reasonable range. Eleven cities have vacancy rates in the 10-15% range. Qingdao, Nanjing, Ningbo, Changsha, Chengdu, Hangzhou, Dongguan, Shenyang, Kunming, Zhengzhou, Xi’an, Hefei, Wuxi Six cities have vacancy rates above 15%: Wuhan, Chongqing, Nanchang, Nantong, Foshan, Langfang Nanchang, the highest, even had a vacancy rate of 20%. Langfang’s vacancy rate also reached 19%. After the release of the report sparked huge discussions and controversies, Shell Research Institute said on August 12 that the document should be internal research material and was sent to the Internet to spark debates from all walks of life, for which it apologized. However, public opinion generally considers the report to have a high degree of credibility. The report shows that the supply of real estate in China’s major cities is already greater than demand, and there is a risk of falling home prices. The report is a wake-up call that a fall in housing prices could trigger a systemic financial crisis.
6.川普住所受到美国联邦调查局调查 根据法院周五(8月12日)解封的搜查令,联邦调查局(FBI)正在调查川普是否违反了《反间谍法》等法律,并于本周早些时候在对佛州海湖庄园的突袭中带走了最高机密文件。 据FBI提供的这份清单,特工从海湖庄园拿走了大约20箱物品,其中包括照片、一张手写纸条,以及对川普的好友罗杰•斯通(Roger Stone)的赦免令。清单中还包括有关“法国总统”的信息,以及佛州一名联邦法官批准的搜查令。 该清单提到一组标有“各种机密/TS/SCI文件”( Various classified/TS/SCI documents)的文件,这是绝密和敏感分类信息的缩写。特工们还收集了四套绝密文件、三套秘密文件和三套机密文件。该清单没有提供有关文件实质内容的更多细节。 搜查令还显示, FBI正在调查川普是否涉嫌删除或销毁记录、妨碍调查以及是否违反《反间谍法》。违反这些法律可能会导致监禁或罚款。 在川普一方阻止这些文件发布的最后期限已过之后,搜查令和物品清单于周五下午正式公布。在FBI突袭遭到川普及其盟友强烈斥责后,司法部向法院申请公开这些文件。 联邦调查人员认为,这些缺失的文件对国家安全构成非同寻常的威胁。出于这种担忧,司法部长加兰德(Merrick Garland)上周批准了对川普住所进行的前所未有的搜查。 川普的发言人布多维奇(Taylor Budowich)周五表示, FBI的举动“不仅是前所未有的,而且是不必要的——现在他们在造谣并含沙射影,试图为作为政府当做打击主要政治对手的武器这一罪行而开脱。这是不可容忍的。” 周四,川普在自己的社交媒体平台上发帖称,他的代表一直在和政府“充分合作”,并补充说, “如果我们有,政府可以得到他们想要的任何东西。”
6.The Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) is investigating whether Trump violated the Counterintelligence Act and other laws and took top-secret documents in a raid on his Sea Lake, Florida, estate earlier this week, according to a court warrant unsealed Friday (Aug. 12). According to the list provided by the FBI, agents took about 20 boxes of items from the Sea Lake estate, including photographs, a handwritten note, and a pardon for Trump’s close friend Roger Stone. The list also included information about the “French president” and a search warrant approved by a federal judge in Florida. The list refers to a set of documents labeled “Various classified/TS/SCI documents,” an acronym for Top Secret and Sensitive Classified Information. The agents also collected four sets of top secret documents, three sets of secret documents, and three sets of classified documents. The list does not provide additional details on the substance of the documents. The search warrant also shows that the FBI is investigating whether Trump allegedly deleted or destroyed records, obstructed an investigation, and violated the Counterintelligence Act. Violations of those laws could result in imprisonment or fines. The search warrant and list of items were officially released on Friday afternoon after the deadline for Trump’s side to block the release of the documents had passed. The Justice Department petitioned the court to release the documents after the FBI raid was strongly rebuked by Trump and his allies. Federal investigators believe the missing documents pose an extraordinary threat to national security. Out of that concern, Attorney General Merrick Garland last week approved an unprecedented search of Trump’s residence. Trump’s spokesman, Taylor Budowich, said Friday that the FBI’s move “is not only unprecedented, but it also’s unnecessary – and now they’re disinforming and insinuating to try to justify the crime of being used as a weapon of the government against a major political opponent. excusing it. This is intolerable.” On Thursday, Trump posted on his social media platform that his representatives have been “fully cooperating” with the administration, adding, “If we have it, the administration can get whatever they want.”
7.美国众议院周五通过了一项全面的税收、健康和气候法案,在关键的中期选举前不到三个月,为民主党人和拜登总统带来一场重大胜利。众议院以220-207的投票结果批准了这项超过4300亿美元的方案,所有民主党人都支持该方案,所有共和党人都反对。经过长达一年多的努力,法案终于提交总统签署。 这条新闻本网站已经多次报道,目前该法案即将签署。
7.The U.S. House of Representatives passed a sweeping tax, health, and climate bill Friday, delivering a major victory for Democrats and President Biden less than three months before the crucial midterm elections. The House approved the more than $430 billion package by a vote of 220-207, with all Democrats supporting the package and all Republicans opposing it. After more than a year-long effort, the bill finally went to the president for his signature. This news has been reported several times on this website, and the bill is now close to being signed.