2022年8月新闻热点(Recent hotspots August 2022)
作者:Publius (这一笔名曾为美国国父汉弥尔顿在撰写 “联邦党人文集” 时使用)
目录:
1. 中国经济恢复势头出现“边际放缓”
2. 海南西藏新疆面对更大“清零”挑战
3. 美五议员访台解放军实战演练威慑
4. 俄军显示撤出赫尔松迹象,乌克兰延长紧急状态
5. 俄国财政吃紧
6. 特拉斯预计当选英国执政党党首
7. 塞尔维亚放弃俄罗斯军事基地,将按照北约标准训练军队
1.中国经济恢复势头出现“边际放缓”,7月房地产投资下滑12.3%,是今年以来最大降幅。中国央行宣布下调中期借贷利率和并进行逆回购操作,分析认为,央行降息有利于解除市场对官方可能放弃增长目标的担忧。 受冠病疫情持续蔓延、房地产市场进一步恶化等因素拖累,中国经济复苏不容乐观,7月主要经济指标均逊于预期;中国央行星期一意外宣布降息,以提振疲弱的经济。 中国国家统计局星期一(8月15日)发布7月宏观数据,主要经济指标均不及预期,其中房地产投资下滑12.3%,为今年以来最大降幅;青年失业率上升至19.9%的创纪录水平。 国家统计局新闻发言人付凌晖在发布会上指出,7月份中国经济延续恢复态势,但受多重因素的影响,“经济恢复的势头边际放缓”。 国家统计局数据显示,7月规模以上工业增加值同比增幅由6月的3.9%回落至3.8%;社会消费品零售总额同比增幅也从6月的3.1%跌至2.7%,环比增长0.27%也慢于6月的0.53%,消费恢复势头远弱于预期。 房地产投资减少12.3%,销售额减少28.2% 房地产市场在密集的政策刺激下仍不见起色。7月房地产投资下降12.3%,为今年以来最大降幅。6月底爆发的房贷断供潮,也打击了购房者信心,全国商品房销售面积降幅进一步扩大至28.9%,销售额减少28.2%。 此外,青年失业率仍居高不下。7月份,31个大城市调查失业率虽然回落至5.6%,但仍高于疫前水平;特别是16岁至24岁人口失业率由6月的19.3%上升至19.9%,刷新有统计以来最高水平。 付凌晖坦承,中国经济持续复苏仍充满风险与挑战,“市场需求的制约作用还是比较大,企业经营的困难还比较多,经济回升的基础还有待巩固”。 出口同比增幅23.9%但持续韧性或正减退 主要经济数据中,唯有出口为低迷的经济提供支撑。数据显示,7月中国货物出口2万2446亿元(人民币),同比增幅达23.9%。 不过,由于全球经济放缓以及发达国家通胀高居不下,中国出口的持续韧性可能正在减退。彭博社最近的调查显示,中国厂家收到的海外客户订单,从圣诞装饰品到服装、帐篷,正趋于枯竭,一些人预计最好也不过与去年持平。 中国民生银行研究院宏观研究中心主任王静文在“宏观大非”微信公众号上发文指出,虽然1月至7月基建累计增速和当月同比增速均有回升,发挥了托底作用,但出口增速逐渐见顶,房地产持续低迷。 基本上,从这个数据来说,中国经济从7月起又开始下行了。5月份开了”10万人稳经济”大会之后,做了大量的经济刺激,结果这效果才持续了两个月。
1. China’s economic recovery has seen a “marginal slowdown”, with real estate investment falling 12.3% in July, the biggest drop so far this year. China’s central bank announced a cut in interest rates for medium-term lending facilities and reverse repo operations, with analysts saying the central bank’s rate cut would help ease market concerns that officials might abandon growth targets. China’s economic recovery is not optimistic due to the continued spread of the coronary disease epidemic and further deterioration of the real estate market, with major economic indicators weaker than expected in July; the Chinese central bank unexpectedly announced an interest rate cut on Monday to boost the weak economy. China’s National Bureau of Statistics released July macro data on Monday (Aug. 15), with major economic indicators falling short of expectations, including a 12.3 percent decline in real estate investment, the biggest drop so far this year, and a rise in the youth unemployment rate to a record level of 19.9 percent. Speaking at the conference, NBS spokesman Fu Linghui pointed out that China’s economy continued its recovery in July, but “the momentum of economic recovery slowed down marginally” due to multiple factors. The National Bureau of Statistics data show that in July, industrial value added above the scale fell to 3.8% year-on-year from 3.9% in June; total retail sales of consumer goods also fell to 2.7% year-on-year from 3.1% in June, and the ringgit growth of 0.27% was also slower than the 0.53% in June, the recovery of consumption momentum is much weaker than expected. Real estate investment was down 12.3% sales down 28.2% The real estate market is still not improving under the intensive policy stimulation. real estate investment dropped 12.3% in July, the biggest drop so far this year. the outbreak of mortgage loan cut-off wave at the end of June also hit the confidence of home buyers, the national sales area of commercial properties fell further to 28.9%, and sales decreased by 28.2%. In addition, the youth unemployment rate remained high, and although the survey unemployment rate in 31 major cities fell to 5.6% in July, it was still higher than the pre-epidemic level; in particular, the unemployment rate for people aged 16 to 24 rose to 19.9% from 19.3% in June, the highest level since statistics began. Fu Linghui admitted that China’s sustained economic recovery is still full of risks and challenges, “the role of market demand constraints is still relatively large, the difficulties of business operations are still more, the foundation of the economic rebound has yet to be consolidated. Exports increased by 23.9% year-on-year, but continued resilience or is receding Among the major economic data, only exports provide support for the sluggish economy. According to the data, China’s exports of goods in July amounted to 2,244.6 billion yuan (RMB, about S$448.9 billion), an increase of 23.9 percent year-on-year. However, the continued resilience of China’s exports may be waning due to the global economic slowdown and high inflation in developed countries. A recent Bloomberg survey showed that orders received by Chinese manufacturers from overseas customers, ranging from Christmas decorations to clothing and tents, are drying up, with some expecting at best the same level as last year. Wang Jingwen, director of the Macro Research Center of the China Minsheng Banking Research Institute, pointed out in an article on the WeChat public number “Macro Dafei” that while the cumulative growth rate of infrastructure and the month-on-month growth rate from January to July both rebounded and played a role in supporting the bottom, the growth rate of exports gradually peaked and real estate remained sluggish. Basically, from this data, China’s economy has started to go down again since July, and after the “100,000 people to stabilize the economy” conference in May, a lot of economic stimuli were done, but the effect only lasted for two months.
2.海南西藏新疆面对更大“清零”挑战。 中国境内单日新增冠病感染者攀升至三个月来新高,检测能力不足、隔离资源短缺令近期暴发疫情的海南、西藏和新疆等边陲地区面对更大“清零”挑战。 学者认为,这轮在炎热气候下暴发的疫情,凸显冠病变异毒株传染力日趋增强,也暴露出边疆区域存在检测、收治和管控资源不足的问题。尽管通过调动周边省份人力物力,可以在一定程度上缓解困境,但要“清零”依然困难。 此外,中国多个热门旅游城市近日遭遇新一波冠病疫情突袭,打乱当地暑期旅游。继海南三亚、新疆乌鲁木齐、西藏拉萨和日喀则等地后,甘肃敦煌星期六(13日)起进入“静默管理”,所有旅游企业暂停旅游活动。 受访业者认为,热门旅游地遭遇疫情黑天鹅,不可避免波及中国国内旅游市场,但民众出行意愿依然强烈,只要疫情得到控制,中国旅游市场仍将迎来金九银十的旺季。但也有分析称,今年底前,疫情管控将愈发严厉,势必影响民众出游信心,拖累旅游市场持续复苏。
2. [Hainan, Tibet, and Xinjiang face greater “zero” challenge] The number of new infections in China climbed to a three-month high in a single day, and the lack of testing capacity and isolation resources has made the border areas of Hainan, Tibet, and Xinjiang, where the recent outbreak occurred, face greater “zero” challenges. “challenge. Scholars believe that this round of outbreaks in hot climates highlights the increasing infectivity of mutated strains of crown disease and exposes the problem of insufficient resources for detection, treatment, and control in frontier regions. Although the plight can be alleviated to a certain extent by mobilizing human and material resources from neighboring provinces, it is still difficult to “zero out”. In addition, several popular tourist cities in China have recently been hit by a new wave of coronary disease outbreaks, disrupting local summer tourism. After Sanya in Hainan, Urumqi in Xinjiang, Lhasa in Tibet, and Shigatse, Dunhuang in Gansu entered into “silent management” on Saturday (13), and all tourism companies suspended tourism activities. Interviewed industry players believe that the black swan of the epidemic in popular tourist destinations will inevitably affect China’s domestic tourism market, but people’s willingness to travel remains strong, as long as the epidemic is under control, China’s tourism market will still usher in the golden ninth and silver tenth season. However, some analysts say that before the end of this year, the epidemic control will become more and more severe, which will inevitably affect people’s confidence to travel, dragging down the tourism market to continue to recover.
3.行程低调不到24小时结束美五议员访台,解放军实战演练威慑在美国众议院议长佩洛西访台12天后,五名美国跨党派参众议员星期一在台北与蔡英文会面。解放军同日在台海周边展开实战化演练,并强调此举是“针对美台继续玩弄政治把戏”的严正威慑。 学者认为,虽然美国议员在行前和访问期间没有敲锣打鼓,但对大陆来说,佩洛西访台不到两周又有美国议员访台,就是虚化和掏空美方的一个中国政策承诺,伤害台海稳定与东亚安全。 台海似乎已出现一个新常态:你访你的,我演我的。至少在中美之间的博弈是如此。就不知未来如果欧洲和日本访问团也日趋频密时,北京是否也以军演表不满。
3. [The trip ended in less than 24 hours with the visit of five U.S. lawmakers to Taiwan and the PLA’s combat drills to deter] Five U.S. senators from across party lines met with Tsai Ing-wen in Taipei on Monday, 12 days after U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan. The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) launched combat drills around the Taiwan Strait on the same day, stressing that the move is a stern deterrent “against the continued political games of the United States and Taiwan”. Scholars believe that although the U.S. lawmakers did not bang the drum before and during the visit, for the mainland, Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan less than two weeks ago and another U.S. lawmaker’s visit to Taiwan to deflate and empty the U.S. commitment to the one-China policy, hurting stability in the Taiwan Strait and East Asian security. A new normal seems to have emerged in the Taiwan Strait: you visit yours, I’ll play mine. At least that is the case in the game between China and the United States. I wonder if Beijing will express its displeasure with military exercises in the future if European and Japanese missions also become more frequent.
4.俄军显示撤出赫尔松迹象,乌克兰延长紧急状态。 俄军步兵开始大规模搜查赫尔松市区,包括民宅和车库,理由是抓游击队,实际拿走一些贵重物品。 观察人士认为,俄军假装进攻突然撤退的可能性又上升了。之前,俄军指挥部退到左岸,接着后勤单位开始渡河,现在俄军开始搜刮民宅。 乌克兰最高拉达表决,批准了泽连斯基的命令,把紧急状态再延长90天,到今年11月。
4. Russian troops show signs of withdrawing from Kherson, Ukraine extends state of emergency. Russian infantry started a massive search of downtown Kherson, including homes and garages, on the grounds of catching partisans and taking some valuables. Observers believe that the possibility of a sudden retreat of Russian troops pretending to attack has risen again. Earlier, the Russian command retreated to the left bank, then logistical units started crossing the river, and now Russian troops started searching civilian homes. Ukraine’s Verkhovna Rada voted to approve Zelensky’s order to extend the state of emergency for another 90 days, until November of this year.
5.俄国财政吃紧。 2022年7月份,全俄国有能源出口收入共7706亿卢布,相比2021年7月份的9940亿卢布,下降了22.5%。 同样在7月,俄联邦中央财政其它收入9904亿卢布,去年7月则是13900亿卢布,下降了28%。 全加起来,俄国7月份联邦财政收入是1.76万亿卢布,其中能源出口收入占到43.8%。同样7月份,去年23840亿卢布,今年才17610亿卢布,净减少6230亿卢布,同比下降了26.1%。 7月份,俄联邦中央财政开支26530亿卢布,单月赤字达到了8920亿卢布。 收入17610亿,赤字8920亿,赤字已经超过了收入的50%,换句话说,超过三分之一的开支是靠赤字在支付的。俄国政府财政处于紧张状态中。
5. Russia’s finances are tight In July 2022, all of Russia had energy export revenues totaling 770.6 billion rubles, compared to 994 billion rubles in July 2021, a decline of 22.5%. Also in July, other revenues of the Russian central treasury amounted to 990.4 billion rubles, compared to 1,390 billion rubles in July last year, a decrease of 28%. Altogether, Russia’s federal revenues in July were 1.76 trillion rubles, of which energy exports accounted for 43.8%. Also in July, the last year 2384 billion rubles, this year only 1,761 billion rubles, a net decrease of 623 billion rubles, down 26.1% year-on-year. In July, Russia’s central government spent 265.3 billion rubles, bringing the single-month deficit to 892 billion rubles. The deficit exceeded 50% of revenues, in other words, more than one-third of the expenses were covered by the deficit. Russian government finances are in a tight state.
6.特拉斯预计当选英国执政党党首。 英国执政党党首的选举进入最后对决。果不其然,在前几轮一直排在第三的特拉斯一跃成为第二,淘汰了原来排在第二的前国防大臣彭妮•莫当特,与英国前财政大臣里希•苏纳克进入决赛:党员们二选一的投票。 预计彭妮•莫当特的支持者大多将支持特拉斯,所以观察人士认为她将赢得选举。
6. Truss expected to be elected head of the ruling party in Britain The election for the head of Britain’s ruling party has entered a showdown. As expected, Truss, who had been in third place in the previous rounds, jumped to second place, eliminating former Defense Secretary Penny Mordaunt, who had been in second place and entered the final with former British Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunaq: the party members voted for one of two. Most of Penny Mordaunt’s supporters are expected to back Truss, so observers believe she will win the election.
7.传闻塞尔维亚放弃俄罗斯军事基地,将按照北约标准训练军队。 贝尔格莱德在总统武契奇宣布“军事中立”后加强了与北约的合作。 负责协调塞尔维亚军队与五角大楼合作的美国国防合作办公室负责人亚历山德罗•佩德拉扎对此作了证实,这是在布贾诺瓦茨附近的“南方”军事基地的联合工作。 华盛顿和贝尔格莱德计划将南方基地发展为“按照北约标准训练塞尔维亚军队和训练塞尔维亚特种部队参加维和行动的主要中心”。 武契奇刚刚表示,塞尔维亚不会在自己的国家建立军事基地,“塞尔维亚不需要任何人的军事基地”。
7. Serbia Rumored to Abandon Russian Military Bases, Train Troops to NATO Standards Belgrade has strengthened its cooperation with NATO after President Vucic declared “military neutrality”. This was confirmed by Alessandro Pedraza, head of the U.S. Defense Cooperation Office, which coordinates cooperation between the Serbian army and the Pentagon, as a joint effort at the “South” military base near Bujanovac. Washington and Belgrade plan to develop the southern base as “the main center for training the Serbian army and training Serbian special forces for peacekeeping operations by NATO standards. Vucic has just said that Serbia will not establish military bases in its own country and that “Serbia does not need anyone’s military bases”.