2022年8月新闻热点(Recent hotspots August 2022) 作者:Publius (这一笔名曾为美国国父汉弥尔顿在撰写 “联邦党人文集” 时使用)
目录:
1.特朗普被FBI抄家后似乎陷于慌乱中
2.美国油价下降,但基础仍不牢固
3.俄罗斯极右翼哲学家杜金之女杜金娜在汽车炸弹爆炸中身亡,疑似遭到暗杀。
4.德国总理朔尔茨民调持续走低
5.普通话和粤语成为多伦多地区最常见的第二、第三类语言。仅次于英语。
6.《日经新闻》认为,制裁可能产生极大影响。
7.福奇宣布准备退休
1.特朗普被FBI抄家后似乎陷于慌乱中
特朗普被抄家十几天来,虽然他发誓要予以反击,但他和他的团队似乎还没有确定一套完整的策略。特朗普高调地要求司法部公开对海湖庄园的搜查令原件,但他并未授权自己的法律团队正式提出这一申请。
据了解,起初特朗普是抵制公开搜查令原件的,直到司法部长加兰主动公开搜查令后,特朗普才开始要求公开相关信息。这表明特朗普正在谨慎行事,以免覆水难收。
特朗普声称藏在他家的那些材料是他的“个人”物品。事实上,虽然总统有权将一些材料定为“个人”物品,但这一权力仅限于总统在任时。特朗普的一些盟友和助理称,那几箱材料被运往海湖庄园时,特朗普并不知道里面装着什么。这样看来,特朗普可能很难证明他在任时已将这些材料定为“个人”物品。
特朗普及其团队还将矛头指向签署搜查令的法官布鲁斯•莱因哈特,称他带有偏见,但他们拿出的证据显然并没有足够的说服力。特朗普的律师还指责司法部尚未用尽其他干扰性较少的手段,就采取了最激进的抄家的做法。但司法部声称,为了拿回那些文件,他们已与特朗普方面进行了大量交涉。司法部官员称,目前调查仍处于早期阶段,接下来是否会对特朗普提出指控还不得而知。
1. Trump appears to be in a panic after being raided by the FBI
Ten days after Trump’s home raid, he and his team don’t seem to have settled on a complete strategy, although he has vowed to fight back. Trump has made a high-profile request for the Justice Department to release the original search warrant for the Sea Lake estate, but he has not authorized his legal team to formally file the request.
It is understood that initially Trump was resistant to making the original search warrant public, and it was only after Attorney General Garland took the initiative to make the warrant public that Trump began asking for the information to be made public. This indicates that Trump is acting cautiously to avoid overturning the water.
Trump claims that the materials hidden in his home are his “personal” belongings. In fact, while the president has the authority to designate some materials as “personal,” that authority is limited to when the president is in office. Some of Trump’s allies and aides say Trump did not know what was in the boxes of materials when they were shipped to the Sea Lake estate. Thus, it may be difficult for Trump to prove that he had designated the materials as “personal” when he was in office.
Trump and his team also pointed the finger at Judge Bruce Reinhardt, who signed the search warrant, for being biased, but the evidence they produced was apparently not convincing enough. Trump’s lawyers also accused the Justice Department of taking the most aggressive approach to raiding homes before it had exhausted other, less intrusive means. But the Justice Department claims that they have dealt extensively with Trump’s side in order to get those documents back. Justice Department officials said the investigation is still in its early stages and it is unknown whether charges will be filed against Trump next.
2.美国油价下降,但基础仍不牢固
上周(8月中下旬),美国的汽油平均价格已降到4美元以下,白宫利用这个机会大力宣扬拜登应对高油价的政绩,驳回共和党对拜登的相关指责。
但一些石油交易商、业界高管和前政府官员提醒称,油价可能再次上涨,因为导致初夏油价飙升的众多因素仍然存在,比如炼油能力有限,俄乌战争存在不确定性等。业内专家称,白宫对于近期油价回落所发挥的作用十分有限,导致油价下跌的更主要的原因是,随着美联储大幅加息,人们对经济衰退的担忧加剧,人们对汽油的需求也因早些时候的高油价而略有回落,同时全球产量也有所上升。他们希望价格能继续回落,但担心中国一旦在疫情后大幅开放,将对需求产生更大压力,从而引发新一轮涨价。
2. U.S. oil prices fall, but the foundation is still not strong
Last week (mid to late August), the average price of gasoline in the U.S. has dropped to below $4. The White House used the opportunity to vigorously tout Biden’s record in dealing with high gas prices and dismiss Republican accusations related to Biden.
But some oil traders, industry executives and former government officials cautioned that oil prices could rise again because numerous factors that led to the early summer spike still exist, such as limited refining capacity and uncertainty about the war between Russia and Ukraine. Industry experts say the White House has played a very limited role in the recent oil price pullback, and that the more significant reasons for the decline are increased recession fears as the Federal Reserve raises interest rates sharply, and a slight pullback in demand for gasoline due to earlier high oil prices, along with a rise in global production. They hope prices will continue to fall back, but fear that once China opens up significantly after the pandemic, it will put more pressure on demand, triggering a new round of price increases.
3.俄罗斯极右翼哲学家杜金之女杜金娜在汽车炸弹爆炸中身亡,疑似遭到暗杀。
8月21日,俄罗斯哲学家杜金之女达莉娅•杜金娜在汽车爆炸中身亡。媒体对于这起案件的幕后黑手和动机众说纷纭,但似乎存在一些误区。人们普遍认为凶手的真正目标是杜金,但事实上,杜金娜本人也是著名的反西方分子。
美国联邦政府认为她供职的媒体的老板是普里戈津,此人因为是瓦格纳雇佣军和社交媒体“水军农场”的教父而受到西方制裁,他还大力支持对乌克兰开战。杜金娜本人也受到了西方制裁,英国政府称她“频繁而高调地宣传涉及乌克兰和俄乌战争的虚假信息”。杜金本人被西方称为“普京的智囊”,但事实上他并没有那么大的影响力。由于他的理论为俄罗斯占领乌东地区提供了依据,他曾经在2014年的一段时间内受到青睐。但是,当克里姆林宫决定不直接将乌东并入俄罗斯之后,杜金在体制内就失宠了,但他还继续在市场上大力推销自己,被认为在俄罗斯具有重要的影响力。
3. Dugina, daughter of Russian far-right philosopher Dugin, was killed in a car bomb blast in a suspected assassination attempt. On August 21, Dalia Dugina, daughter of Russian philosopher Dugin, was killed in a car bombing. The media is divided on who was behind the case and the motive, but there seems to be some misconceptions. It is widely believed that the real target of the killer was Dugin, but in fact Dugina herself was a well-known anti-Western activist. The U.S. federal government believes that the media outlet she worked for was owned by Prigozhin, a man sanctioned by the West for being the godfather of Wagner’s mercenaries and social media “water farms,” and who strongly supported the war against Ukraine. Duchina herself has been sanctioned by the West for what the British government calls her “frequent and high-profile propaganda of false information about Ukraine and the war between Russia and Ukraine. Dugin herself has been called “Putin’s think tank” by the West, but in fact he is not that influential. He was favored for a time in 2014 because his theories provided the basis for Russia’s occupation of the Ukrainian east. However, Dugin fell out of favor within the system when the Kremlin decided not to integrate the Udorno directly into Russia, but he continues to market himself heavily and is considered to have significant influence in Russia.
4.德国总理朔尔茨民调持续走低
据今天公布的一项民调显示,大约有三分之二(62%)的德国人对朔尔茨及其陷入分裂的联盟的工作感到不满,比3月时的39%已有大幅上升;只有25%的德国人对朔尔茨的工作感到满意,这一比例比3月时的46%已有显著下降。朔尔茨上台后,就不得不应对俄乌战争、能源危机、高通胀等棘手问题,这些问题已把德国推到了经济衰退的边缘。批评者指责朔尔茨没有表现出足够的领导力。
4. German Chancellor Scholz Continues to Lose in Polls
According to a poll released today, about two-thirds (62%) of Germans are dissatisfied with the work of Scholz and his fractured coalition, up sharply from 39% in March, while only 25% of Germans are satisfied with Scholz’s work, a significant drop from 46% in March. Since taking office, Scholz has had to deal with the Russian-Ukrainian war, the energy crisis, high inflation and other thorny issues that have pushed Germany to the brink of recession. Critics have accused Scholz of not showing enough leadership.
5.根据加拿大最新人口普查结果显示,普通话和粤语成为多伦多地区最常见的第二、第三类语言。仅次于英语。
据加拿大最新人口普查结果显示,普通话已超过粤语,成为多伦多第二大最常见的语言,仅次于英语,粤语排在第三位。在多伦多地区的近620万居民中,有约28万人(占4.5%)将普通话视为母语,有4.3%的居民将粤语视为母语。这反映了近年来加拿大说普通话的人不断增加的趋势。
5. According to the latest Canadian census, Mandarin and Cantonese are the second and third most common languages spoken in the Toronto area. It is second only to English.
Mandarin has surpassed Cantonese as the second most common first language in Toronto, behind English, with Cantonese in third place, according to the latest Canadian census. Of the nearly 6.2 million residents in the Toronto area, about 280,000 (4.5%) consider Mandarin to be their mother tongue and 4.3% consider Cantonese to be their mother tongue. This reflects the increasing trend of Mandarin speakers in Canada in recent years.
6.《日经新闻》认为,制裁可能产生极大影响。
据《日经新闻》获取的一份内部报告显示,如果中国大陆发动武统,而美西方对中国大陆实施当前对俄那样的全面制裁的话,这将是一把双刃剑。一方面,大陆的经济、贸易、粮食安全、民生等各个领域无疑会受到严重打击,但另一方面,美西方自己也会遭受重大损失,毕竟中国大陆的经济规模是俄罗斯的10倍,同时又是世界上头号贸易大国。以贸易为例,一旦大陆与各大国之间的贸易停滞,全球将有2.61万亿美元蒸发,相当于全球GDP的3%;日本的GDP将减少3.7%,欧洲将减少2.1%,美国将减少1.3%。因此《日经新闻》分析认为,虽然当前一些美国议员提出涉台法案,希望把“一旦大陆发动武统,就对大陆实施全面制裁”写入美国法律,包括将大陆排除在国际支付体系之外,但这样的条款要得到通过并不容易,因为美国自己也会蒙受重大损失。
6. The Nikkei Shimbun believes that the sanctions on mainland China could have a great impact.
According to an internal report obtained by the Nikkei Shimbun, it would be a double-edged sword if mainland China launches an armed reunification and the U.S. and the West impose comprehensive sanctions on mainland China as they currently do on Russia. On the one hand, the mainland’s economy, trade, food security, livelihood and other areas will undoubtedly be hit hard, but on the other hand, the U.S. and the West themselves will also suffer significant losses, because after all, the Chinese mainland’s economy is 10 times larger than Russia’s, and at the same time is the world’s number one trading power. Taking trade as an example, once trade between the continent and the major powers comes to a halt, $2.61 trillion will evaporate globally, equivalent to 3% of global GDP; Japan’s GDP will be reduced by 3.7%, Europe’s by 2.1% and the US by 1.3%. Therefore, according to the analysis of Nikkei Shimbun, although some U.S. lawmakers are currently proposing a bill related to Taiwan, hoping to include “comprehensive sanctions against the mainland once it launches an armed reunification” in U.S. law, including the exclusion of the mainland from the international payment system, it will not be easy to get such a provision passed, because the U.S. itself will also suffer But it will not be easy to get such a provision passed, because the United States itself will suffer significant losses.
7.福奇宣布准备退休
81岁高龄的福奇近期宣布,他准备在今年(2022年)12月从联邦政府离职。届时,他将卸任已担任38年的美国国家过敏和传染病研究所所长一职,并卸任免疫调节实验室主任、拜登的首席医疗顾问等职务。福奇强调他此次只是离开政府岗位,但并非退休,接下来还将在其他领域发挥余热。
7. Fauci announces his intention to retire
At the age of 81, Fauci recently announced his intention to leave the federal government in December of this year (2022). At that time, he will step down as director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, a position he has held for 38 years, and as director of the Immunomodulation Laboratory, Biden’s chief medical advisor, and other positions. Fauci stressed that he is only leaving his government post, but not retiring, and will play a role in other areas.