2022年9月新闻热点(Recent hotspots September 2022)
作者:Publius (这一笔名曾为美国国父汉弥尔顿在撰写 “联邦党人文集” 时使用)
目录:
1. 美国参众两院议员近期陆续访问台湾
2. 高通胀影响下美国经济喜忧参半
3. 美国最高法院推翻罗诉韦德案以来,美国一些州的女性朋友注册选民人数大增,分析人士认为这一趋势有助于民主党的选情
4. 美联储主席鲍威尔表示,将继续以强硬态度加息
5. 美国公众公司会计监督委员会就中概股与中国证监会和财政部达成初步妥协
6. 美国司法部公布搜查海湖庄园的宣誓书以及证据,其中包含大量机密文件
7. 美国大学的外国留学生数量大幅下降
近期热点 2022.9.3
1.美国参众两院议员近期陆续访问台湾
参议员玛莎•布莱克伯恩(Marsha Blackburn)于8月26日深夜抵达台湾。布莱克伯恩是参议院商务委员会和武装力量委员会成员。
这是8月以来美国政界要人第三次访台,之前两次是美国众议院议长,民主党领袖佩洛西以及美国参议院访问团。观察人士认为,此后美国及欧洲、日本甚至其他国家和地区的政界要人访问台湾将是常态。
Recent Hot Topics 2022.9.3
1. Members of the U.S. House and Senate have recently visited Taiwan
Senator Marsha Blackburn (D-CA) arrived in Taiwan late on August 26. Blackburn is a member of the Senate Commerce and Armed Services Committees.
This is the third visit to Taiwan by a U.S. political dignitary since August, after two previous visits by the Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi, and a visiting delegation from the U.S. Senate. Observers believe that thereafter it will be the norm for political dignitaries from the United States and Europe, Japan and even other countries and regions to visit Taiwan.
2 .高通胀影响下美国经济喜忧参半
据美国商务部8月26日公布的最新数据估计,美国今年第二季度的GDP下降了0.6%,降幅小于最初估计的0.9%。但是仍然是负增长。
修正后的这一数据,仍然是又一个表明美国经济可能出现衰退的迹象。另一项指标——美国国内总收入在第二季度实现了增长,增幅为0.3%。
不过,据美国劳工部的最新数据显示,上周新申请失业救济金的人数略有下降,为24.3万。这表明美国就业市场仍然十分强劲。
2 . The U.S. economy has mixed feelings under the influence of high inflation
According to the latest data released by the U.S. Department of Commerce on August 26, the U.S. GDP fell by 0.6% in the second quarter of this year, a smaller drop than the initial estimate of 0.9%. But it was still negative growth.
The revised figure is still another indication of a possible recession in the U.S. economy. Another indicator – U.S. gross domestic income – grew in the second quarter, by 0.3 percent.
However, the number of new claims for unemployment benefits fell slightly last week to 243,000, according to the latest data from the U.S. Department of Labor. This indicates that the U.S. job market remains very strong.
3.美国最高法院推翻罗诉韦德案以来,美国一些州的女性朋友注册选民人数大增,分析人士认为这一趋势有助于民主党的选情
美国最高法院推翻罗诉韦德案后的一段时间以来,一些州的女性注册选民人数大增。这一现象在堪萨斯州尤为显著,据《纽约时报》报道,在该州今年头几个月的新注册选民中,男性占了一半以上,而最高法院作出上述裁决后,女性占到了该州新注册选民的70%以上。在这个月的堪萨斯州公投中,由于民主党的投票率较高,一项原本可能推翻该州堕胎权的全民公决最后没有通过。
堪萨斯州以及其他多个州的新注册选民数据表明,最高法院的上述裁决激发了女性选民的热情。虽然各州女性新增注册选民占全体选民的比例较小,但女性注册选民的增加无疑是有利于民主党的。
3. Since the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, the number of women friends registered voters in some U.S. states has increased significantly, a trend that analysts believe will help the Democratic Party’s electoral fortunes
In the period since the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, the number of women registered to vote has increased dramatically in some states. This phenomenon is particularly notable in Kansas, where men made up more than half of the state’s newly registered voters in the first few months of the year, and women made up more than 70 percent of the state’s newly registered voters after the Supreme Court ruling, according to the New York Times. In this month’s Kansas referendum, a referendum that could have overturned abortion rights in the state ended up not passing due to a high Democratic turnout.
Data on new voter registrations in Kansas and several other states suggest that the Supreme Court ruling has galvanized women voters. Although the percentage of new female registered voters in each state is relatively small, the increase in female registered voters is undoubtedly beneficial to the Democratic Party.
4.美联储主席鲍威尔表示,将继续以强硬态度加息。
美联储主席鲍威尔在怀俄明州举行的美联储年度会议上发表了备受关注的讲话,他不仅预示了进一步加息,还警告称利率可能需要在一段时间内保持在高位,以确保价格不会持续飙升。
鲍威尔话音一落,美国三大股指全线应声下跌,其中道指狂泻超1000点。形成鲜明反差的是,鲍威尔去年在同一会议上还称高通胀只是暂时的,今天的“鹰派”讲话让市场认为美联储甚至到明年都不太可能政策转向。
4. Fed Chairman Powell said he will continue to raise interest rates in a tough manner.
In a much-anticipated speech at the Federal Reserve’s annual meeting in Wyoming, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell not only foreshadowed further rate hikes, but also warned that interest rates may need to remain high for some time to ensure that prices do not continue to spike.
Once Powell’s words were spoken, all three major U.S. stock indexes fell in response, with the Dow plunging wildly by more than 1,000 points. The stark contrast is that Powell also said last year at the same meeting that high inflation is only temporary, today’s “hawkish” speech makes the market think the Fed is unlikely to turn policy even to next year.
5.美国公众公司会计监督委员会就中概股与中国证监会和财政部达成初步妥协
美国公众公司会计监督委员会(Public Company Accounting Oversight Board)今天宣布,已与中国证券监督管理委员会和中国财政部签署协议,启动针对总部位于中国大陆和香港的注册会计事务所进行符合美国法律的全面审核和调查。
这意味着美国市场主管部门开始了对在美上市中方企业的会计审查。与此同时,PCAOB派员赴香港处理中概股审计底稿也可以被视为是中美双方各让一步的结果 — 此前中方坚持审计底稿不能离开中国,而美方又不接受以中方会计公司的报告取代调查审计纪录的操作。如果相关操作被常态化(比如美方最终在香港设立办事处),在美上市的中资公司很可能就不需要退市了,未来也可能有更多的中国公司会继续在美上市。另外,香港的金融中心地位也可能因此而得以加强。
5. The U.S. Public Company Accounting Oversight Board reached a preliminary compromise with the China Securities Regulatory Commission and the Ministry of Finance on Chinese stocks
The Public Company Accounting Oversight Board (PCAO) announced today that it has signed an agreement with the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) and the Chinese Ministry of Finance (MOF) to initiate a comprehensive audit and investigation of registered accounting firms based in mainland China and Hong Kong for compliance with U.S. law.
This means that the U.S. market authorities have begun an accounting review of Chinese companies listed in the United States. At the same time, the PCAOB’s visit to Hong Kong to deal with the audit transcripts of Chinese stocks can also be seen as the result of a concession from both sides — previously the Chinese side insisted that the audit transcripts could not leave China, while the U.S. side did not accept the operation of replacing the investigation of audit records with the reports of Chinese accounting firms. If the operation is normalized (for example, if the U.S. side eventually sets up an office in Hong Kong), Chinese companies listed in the U.S. will likely not need to be delisted, and more Chinese companies may continue to be listed in the U.S. in the future. Also, Hong Kong’s position as a financial center may be strengthened as a result.
6.美国司法部公布搜查海湖庄园的宣誓书以及证据,其中包含大量机密文件。
在美国司法部公布搜查海湖庄园的宣誓书之后,据相关检察官透露,宣誓书中大量涂黑文件内容的原因之一,是为了明确表示他们担心前总统及其盟友可能会利用任何机会恐吓证人或以其他方式非法阻挠他们的调查。
被涂黑的地方除了包含大量证人的个人信息外,还包括了很多绝对不能让他国政府获得的“秘密人力资源”信息,也就是美国情报界为了在世界各地搜集信息而雇佣的线人名单。
这些线人有的冒了生命危险获取了重要秘密并交给了美国。这个名单上哪怕只有一个人的名字被泄露,美国的情报行动可能都会受到“倒退数年”的影响。
另外,除了间谍、线人名单外,被带到海湖庄园的机密文件里还包含了从其他国家获取的监控信息以及对一些重要个体的电子窃听内容。美国国家情报总监办公室今天以书信的方式回应国会的呼吁,表示将对相关损失进行评估。
6. The U.S. Department of Justice released affidavits and evidence from the search of the Sea Lake estate, which contained a large number of classified documents.
After the U.S. Department of Justice released the affidavit for the search of the Sea Lake estate, one of the reasons for the extensive blacking out of the contents of the documents in the affidavit, according to the prosecutors involved, was to make clear their concern that the former president and his allies might use any opportunity to intimidate witnesses or otherwise illegally obstruct their investigation.
The blacked-out areas contain not only a lot of personal information about witnesses, but also a lot of “secret human resources” information that should never be available to other governments, that is, lists of informants hired by the U.S. intelligence community to gather information around the world.
Some of these informants risked their lives to obtain important secrets and gave them to the United States. If even one name on this list is leaked, U.S. intelligence operations could be affected by a “setback of several years.
In addition, in addition to the list of spies and informants, the classified documents brought to the Sea Lake estate also contain surveillance information obtained from other countries and electronic eavesdropping on a number of important individuals. The Office of the Director of National Intelligence responded to the congressional call today with a letter stating that it will assess the damage involved.
7.美国大学的外国留学生数量大幅下降
受到全球新冠疫情的影响,2020年和2021年美国大学的外国留学生数量大幅下降。
据国际教育协会的数据显示,2018-2019学年,美国大学招收了110万名外国学生,创下历史最高记录;而在2020-2021学年,这个数字下降到了约91.4万。
过去十年来,美国大学的录取人数一直在稳步下降,外国学生已成为其关键收入来源。外国学生通常支付全额学费,在一些州甚至相当于“州内学生”支付学费的两到三倍。算上住房和其他商品的支出,外国学生在2020年为美国经济贡献了284亿美元,大大少于2018年的405亿美元。外国学生不仅给美国带来大量的经济收益,而且不会加剧美国当前日益严重的学生债务危机。目前,中国是美国大学最大的海外学生来源,占外国学生总数的三分之一以上。美国大学认为,缓解经济压力需要中国学生的参与。然而,受到疫情和中美关系的影响,今年上半年美国仅向中国大陆学生发放了31055份F-1签证,而2019年同期则为64261份。
7. The number of foreign students at U.S. universities has fallen sharply
The number of foreign students at U.S. universities declines sharply in 2020 and 2021 due to the impact of the global covid-19 pandemic.
According to the Association for International Education, U.S. universities enrolled a record 1.1 million foreign students in the 2018-2019 academic year; in the 2020-2021 academic year, that number drops to about 914,000.
Admissions to U.S. universities have been steadily declining over the past decade, and foreign students have become a key source of revenue for them. Foreign students typically pay full tuition, which in some states is two to three times the amount paid by “in-state” students. Including spending on housing and other goods, foreign students contributed $28.4 billion to the U.S. economy in 2020, significantly less than the $40.5 billion in 2018. Not only do foreign students bring substantial economic benefits to the U.S., but they do not exacerbate the country’s current and growing student debt crisis. China is currently the largest source of overseas students for U.S. universities, accounting for more than one-third of all foreign students. U.S. universities believe that the participation of Chinese students is needed to alleviate economic pressures. However, affected by the covid-19 pandemic and U.S.-China relations, the U.S. issued only 31,055 F-1 visas to mainland Chinese students in the first half of this year, compared to 64,261 in the same period in 2019.