2022年9月新闻热点(Recent hotspots September 2022)
作者:Publius
目录:
1.日本在周二(27号)为安倍举行国葬
2.美国财政部公布2022财年前11个月的联邦政府财政收支数据
3.美国各级政府总的财政收入和支出预计将创下新高
4. 2022年上半年各主要经济体国民生产总值(GDP)排名发生变化
5.分析认为,应实事求是地考虑GDP排名变化问题
6.印度经济出现强劲发展势头
近期热点 2022.9.28
1.日本在周二(27号)为安倍举行国葬
安倍的葬礼是继英女王葬礼和联合国大会之后,近期又一次云集各国政要的重大外交盛会。7月份安倍晋三遇刺后不到一周,岸田文雄就以内阁决议的方式,决定花费1100万美元为安倍举行国葬。
日本民众对于这一决定出现了两极分化的态度,大量抗议者批评国葬是对公共资金的浪费,是岸田及其内阁单方面强加给人民的。不过,也有不少日本民众认为,给安倍举行国葬是合理的决定。
此外,日本自民党与宗教团体统一教会的密切关系,也成为争议话题。
岸田内阁的支持率近期下降到了大约40%。
1. Japan will hold a state funeral for Abe on Tuesday (27th)
Abe’s funeral will be another major diplomatic event that will bring together dignitaries after the Queen’s funeral and the U.N. General Assembly. less than a week after the assassination of Shinzo Abe in July, Fumio Kishida decided to spend $11 million on a cabinet resolution to hold a state funeral for Abe.
The Japanese public has been polarized by this decision, with a large number of protesters criticizing the state funeral as a waste of public funds and a unilateral imposition on the people by Kishida and his cabinet. However, there are also many Japanese people who believe that giving Abe a state funeral is a reasonable decision.
In addition, the close relationship between the LDP and the Unification Church, a religious group, has become a controversial topic.
The approval rate of Kishida’s cabinet has recently dropped to about 40%.
2.美国财政部公布2022财年前11个月的联邦政府财政收支数据。
根据美国财政部的公开数据,2022财年前11个月,美国联邦政府的财政收入已超过了4.4万亿美元,财政支出约为5.345万亿美元,赤字接近1万亿美元。
这里需要注意两个问题,首先:这是2022财年的前11个月数据,不等同于2022年。美国的2022财年,是从2021年的10月份开始,到2022年的9月份结束。当前公布的财政收支数据“截止时间是2022年的8月份”,也就是2022财年前11个月的收入信息。
其次,不论是4.4万亿美元的财政收入,还是大约5.345万亿美元的财政支出都是“美国联邦政府”的信息,也就是美国中央政府的财政收支信息,并没有纳入各个州政府及其他地方政府的财政收支。
2. The U.S. Treasury Department released federal government revenue and expenditure data for the first 11 months of FY2022.
According to the public data of the U.S. Treasury Department, the fiscal revenue data of the U.S. federal government in the first 11 months of FY2022. Among them, the U.S. federal government’s fiscal revenue has exceeded $4.4 trillion, fiscal spending is about $5.345 trillion, and the deficit is nearly $1 trillion.
There are two issues to note here, first: this is the first 11 months of FY2022 data, not the same as 2022. The U.S. fiscal year 2022 begins in October of 2021 and ends in September of 2022. The current published revenue and expenditure data “ends in August 2022,” which is the first 11 months of FY 2022.
Second, both the $4.4 trillion in revenues and the approximately $5.345 trillion in expenditures are for the “U.S. federal government” – the central government of the United States – and do not include the revenues and expenditures of individual state and other local governments. The revenues and expenditures of state and other local governments are not included.
3.美国各级政府总的财政收入和支出预计将创下新高。 以2022财年前11个月数据的基础,有分析人士认为:2022财年,美国各级政府的财政收入预计在8.3万亿美元左右,财政支出预计在9.5万亿美元之上,均创下历史新高。 应该注意的是,美国赤字达到1.2万亿美元,与所谓“美国政府破产”是两个概念。除了税收收入外,美国各级政府,特别是联邦政府的财政收入中,发行国债和债务,以及发行货币(美元),占了财政收入的很大比重,通过这个渠道筹集的资金构成了联邦财政支出的很大部分。真正出现“破产危机”往往是因为美国党派政治分歧,使得出现无法按期偿还债务的“可能性”所致。 (数据来源于美国财经分析机构)
3. Total U.S. government revenues and expenditures at all levels are expected to reach record highs.
Based on the data for the first 11 months of FY2022, some analysts believe that: in FY2022, U.S. fiscal revenues at all levels of government are expected to be around $8.3 trillion and fiscal expenditures are expected to be above $9.5 trillion, both of which are record highs.
It should be noted that the U.S. deficit of $1.2 trillion and the so-called “U.S. government bankruptcy” are two concepts. In addition to tax revenues, the issuance of treasury bonds and debt, as well as the issuance of currency (U.S. dollars), account for a large portion of the revenues of the U.S. government at all levels, especially the federal government, and the funds raised through this channel constitute a large portion of federal fiscal expenditures. The real “bankruptcy crisis” is often due to partisan political differences in the U.S., making the “possibility” of not being able to pay the debt on time.
4. 2022年上半年各主要经济体国民生产总值(GDP)排名发生变化。
按照国际汇率,将各国货币兑换为美元来计算,2022年上半年,各主要经济体的GDP排名前15名依次为:
1.美国(12万亿以上)
2.中华人民共和国(8万亿以上)
3.日本 4.德国(2万亿以上)
5.印度6.英国7.法国8.加拿大(1万亿以上)
9.意大利10.巴西11.俄罗斯12.澳大利亚13.韩国(8000亿以上)
14.墨西哥 15.西班牙
值得注意的特点是,发达经济体普遍通胀严重,虽然美国通胀很严重,但是欧洲、英国、韩国等国家的通胀也十分严重,这导致了欧元、英镑等货币相对于美元的明显贬值。这成了这些国家GDP排名下降的重要原因。
另外,由于众所周知的原因,中国的GDP增速出现明显放缓,甚至有制造虚假数据的嫌疑。
(数据来源于各国统计局统计)
4.The ranking of the GDP of the major economies changed in the first half of 2022.
Based on international exchange rates, converting countries’ currencies into U.S. dollars to calculate the top 15 GDP rankings of major economies in the first half of 2022, in order, are
1. the United States (over $12 trillion)
2. People’s Republic of China (more than $8 trillion)
3. Japan 4. Germany ($2 trillion or more)
5. India 6. United Kingdom 7. France 8. Canada ($1 trillion or more)
9. Italy 10. Brazil 11. Russia 12. Australia 13. Korea (more than 800 billion)
14.Mexico 15.Spain
A noteworthy feature is that inflation is generally severe in developed economies. While inflation is severe in the United States, it is also severe in Europe, the United Kingdom, and South Korea, which has led to a significant depreciation of currencies such as the euro and the British pound relative to the U.S. dollar. This became an important reason for the decline in the GDP ranking of these countries.
In addition, due to well-known reasons, China’s GDP growth rate has slowed down significantly, even to the point of creating false data.
(Data from national statistical offices)
5.分析认为,应实事求是地考虑GDP排名变化问题
欧洲国家和英国GDP排名出现明显下降,但是不宜因此判断这些国家经济严重下行,以西班牙为例,墨西哥排名超过西班牙,升至全球第14名。不过,从上半年经济增长率角度来看,以欧元计算,西班牙高达6.2%,与墨西哥的1.9%相比,有着数倍的优势。但欧元贬值幅度达到了9.3%,所以按美元计算的GDP没有增长。反而墨西哥因为币值相对稳定,GDP排名上升了。
但我们都知道,西班牙相较于墨西哥,经济发展有着明显优势。因此,对GDP排名变化问题,应该全面思考。
(数据来源于西班牙国家统计局)
5. Analysis suggests that changes in GDP rankings should be considered realistically
European countries and the United Kingdom GDP ranking there is a significant decline, but it is not appropriate to judge the serious economic downturn in these countries, Spain, for example, Mexico ranked more than Spain, rose to the 14th place in the world. However, from the perspective of economic growth rate in the first half of the year, in euro terms, Spain is up to 6.2%, compared with Mexico’s 1.9%, has several times the advantage. But the devaluation of the euro reached 9.3%, so the GDP in dollar terms did not grow. Instead, Mexico’s GDP ranking rose because of the relative stability of the currency.
However, we all know that Spain has a clear advantage in economic development compared to Mexico. Therefore, the issue of GDP ranking change should be considered comprehensively.
(Data from the Spanish National Statistics Institute)
6.印度经济出现强劲发展势头
据印度国家统计局,2022年4月到6月,印度全社会完成的名义GDP为649473.6亿卢比,同比实际提升13.5%;1月到3月,完成的名义GDP为661523.5亿卢比,同比实际上涨了4.1%。
2022年上半年,印度全社会完成的名义GDP达到了1310997.1亿卢比,与去年同期相比,摒弃物价变动因素,上涨8.4%。这个增长率,依然超过了中国、美国、英国、法国等其他主要经济体。
按平均汇率换算,印度2022年上半年的GDP为1.719万亿美元,超过了英国,升至全球第五名。印度外交部长苏杰生公开表示,他对印度将成为今年世界上增长最快的主要经济体有充分信心,并认为印度经济将实现至少7%的增长。
6. Indian economy shows strong momentum
According to the National Bureau of Statistics, India’s society-wide nominal GDP finished at Rs. 6,494,736 billion from April to June 2022, a 13.5% year-over-year real uptick; from January to March, nominal GDP finished at Rs. 6,615,235 billion, a 4.1% year-over-year real uptick.
In the first half of 2022, India’s society-wide completed nominal GDP reached Rs. 131,099.71 billion, up 8.4% compared to the same period last year, excluding price changes. This growth rate still outpaces other major economies such as China, the US, the UK and France.
Converted at the average exchange rate, India’s GDP for the first half of 2022 is $1.719 trillion, surpassing the United Kingdom and rising to fifth place in the world. India’s Foreign Minister Su Jaisheng has publicly stated that he is fully confident that India will be the fastest growing major economy in the world this year and believes that the Indian economy will achieve growth of at least 7%.